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Manufacturing ISM Jobs Under Pressure, Service Report Eyed

US DATA
  • Within the ISM manufacturing report, the employment component offered one of the weaker takes as it fell 3.3pts to 48.1 in June for the largest monthly decline since Sep’22. As with prices paid, the MNI Chicago PMI again offered a useful steer here, falling 2.9pts in June to 45.6.
  • Following two sizeable increases, it remains above the 46.9 of March but is again below 50 in contraction territory.
  • However, with services accounting for ~90% of private sector payrolls, Thursday’s ISM Services report will offer a more complete indicator coming just ahead of payrolls on Friday in a holiday-shortened data week.
  • ISM services employment was already under pressure as of May at 49.2 for its lowest since Jun’22, although those subdued levels haven't prevented still strong payrolls growth.

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