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Manufacturing PMI Rose to 59.4 in June

POLAND
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that Polish (preliminary) CPI inflation decelerated in June, up 4.4% YoY (vs. 4.6% expected) and down from 4.7% from the previous month.
  • MPC (hawkish) member Gatnar said in an interview that inflation risks are still elevated and is aiming for a 'symbolic' hike in order to reassure market that the NBP is ready to act if inflationary pressures continue to grow in H2.
  • Then, MPC member Kamil Zubelewicz commented in an interview that it would make sense to raise rates to 1.5%, without specifying anything any timeframe.
  • On the other hand, uncertainty over the economic recovery remains elevated.
  • This week, Polish Health Minister Adam Niedzielski commented in Radio Plus that he sees risk of a 4th Covid Wave in late August, therefore wearing masks indoors will remain mandatory for longer.
  • This morning, manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 59.4 (vs. 57.1 exp.), up from 57.2.
  • Next important event is the NBP policy meeting on July 8; NBP expected to keep benchmark rate steady at 0.1%.
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