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Manufacturing Sales Volumes Nudge Higher But Unfilled Orders Climb

CANADA
  • Hitting at the same time as the large miss in the NY Fed Empire survey, Canadian manufacturing and wholesale trade sales were softer than expected back in June albeit with mixed revisions.
  • Manufacturing sales fell -0.8% M/M (following a smaller than first thought hit of -1.1% in May) although falling prices in June meant volumes nudged 0.1% higher to record a 1.3% increase in Q2.
  • Inventories-to-sales of 1.62 months lifted back towards highs seen for the post-pandemic recovery. It's in part likely the continued slow shift to less reliance on a just-in-time inventory approach as businesses continue to struggle with capacity constraints, most recently with unfilled orders rising 1.7% M/M.
  • The weakness of the Empire survey still appears to dominate GoCs though, with an acceleration of the bull flattening seen after open with 2YY -3.3bps, 10YY -6.3bps.
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