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March Employ Surges +916k

US TSYS SUMMARY
Surge in March job gains, +916k vs. +660k est (private, +780k, govt +136k) and up-revisions for prior two helped push Tsy ylds to new one+ year highs while equities posted new all-time highs as well: S&Ps 4038.0.
  • Initial chop, Tsys gapped higher after initially better selling, chalk that up to thin market conditions on shortened pre-Easter weekend participation. Much better March employ data finally sunk in a few minutes later as market pulled forward rate hike expectations sooner than later. Yield curves chop, 5s30s that dipped below 138.0 to 137.713 low.
  • Focus more on economic recovery not inflation expectations one desk said as 5Y yields climb back to late Feb 2020 levels, 0.9738% highs. Expect further vol
  • 3s and 5s back to the assumption of tighter Fed policy starting in April 2022 with a fast increase to 1.25% another desk said.
  • CDC left parting message around the early close: green-lighting travel for those fully vaccinated: "fully vaccinated Americans can resume domestic and overseas travel as long as they wear masks in public," Politico reported.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 2.8bps at 0.1862%, 5-Yr is up 7.3bps at 0.9738%, 10-Yr is up 4.8bps at 1.7181%, and 30-Yr is up 3.1bps at 2.3627%.
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