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March HICP Tracking On Low Side Of Consensus, Core In Line

EUROZONE DATA

With countries representing around 92% of the weighting of the Eurozone inflation basket already having reported flash March HICP, the euro-wide headline figure is tracking slightly below the 2.5% Y/Y Bloomberg consensus median, and the 2.6% MNI Consensus median in our preview last week (release is at 1000UK).

  • MNI estimates Y/Y HICP tracking between 2.4-2.5%, slightly closer to the lower than the higher end of that band. Either would represent a deceleration compared to 2.6% in February and the lowest since November 2023.
  • Core HICP is tracking around the 3.0% Y/Y consensus (3.1% prior), which would be the lowest since March 2022.
  • Key themes seen across geographies in the flash reports include very soft ex-energy goods prices but upticks in services inflation. An 19th consecutive 4.0+% Y/Y services print looks possible, though there was already anticipation going into this month that the Easter weekend calendar effect could boost services prices.
  • We will have a closer look at inflation momentum across categories following the release of the ECB's seasonally-adjusted monthly data later in the day.
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