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March Industrial Production Data, USDBRL Extends gains

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL surged once again on Monday, rising back above the 5.00 mark and closing at an impressive 5.0850. While the Brazilian Real remains firmly in positive territory for the year, this retracement of around 11% in USDBRL from the lows represents a significant turnaround.
  • Mixed February economic activity data yesterday with the monthly figure missing estimates but the annual data rising to 0.66% Y/y; versus estimates of +0.50%. Today markets will receive March production data:
    • 1300BST/0800ET: March Industrial Production YoY, est. -2.9%, prior -4.3%
    • 1300BST/0800ET: March Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7%
  • Estadao reported yesterday that the government’s so-called Kindness Package – a policy mix of fuel vouchers, Auxilio Brasil and other actions to target inflation and unemployment will leave a BRL 82bln bill due for the next parliamentary cycle.
    • Furthermore, the government are planning to resume their proposals that would exclude the Auxilio Brasil program from the overall government spending cap.
  • Current Presidential poll leader Lula spoke over the weekend, outlining his opposition to the privatisation of Eletrobras, adding that he also stated it would be necessary to “recover” Petrobras from private hands. He added that focus, if elected, would be on transforming inflation into a salary increase across Brazil.
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