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March Inflation Shows Further Upside Surprises, Banxico Minutes Due

MEXICO
  • March data showed both the annual headline figure and the core reading beating estimates once again, reaching a 21-year high and continuing to place pressure on the Banxico board.
  • The Banxico minutes due later this afternoon follows the first unanimous decision from the Banxico board during this tightening cycle with Gerardo Esquivel voting for a 50bp hike.
    • JPMorgan expect the minutes to show that Banxico should at least maintain its 50bp hiking pace in May, and given the evolution of short-term risks it could deliver an additional 50bp in June—alongside the Fed—before shifting back to 25bp increases.
    • Similarly, Goldman Sachs expect to see less dispersion of views among directors around: (1) the outlook for inflation, (2) the effectiveness of rate hikes to tame inflation and anchor expectations given the nature of the shocks that have affected inflation, and, (3) the proper near-term calibration of the monetary stance given the perceived balance of macro and financial risks and FOMC Fed Funds path.
  • Elsewhere, Mexico’s Supreme Court will resume debate on an electricity law passed last year that gives priority to the state utility at the expense of private companies. Justices began discussing the law on Tuesday.
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