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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUDNZD
AUD/NZD is back below 1.1300, last at 1.1275/80, albeit up from earlier lows just above 1.1260. Macro indicators are generally tilted to the downside for the cross, although the the AU-NZ swap spread has stabilized somewhat, back to -80bps, versus -88bps in terms of recent lows. Relative data surprises have swung back in NZ's favor though according to Citi indices, see the chart below. If this trend persists, it could be expected to cap the upside in relative yield differentials from an AUD standpoint.
- We do have upcoming Australian trade balance data for August. The trade surplus is expected to rebound, which has been a strong point of differentiation for AUD relative to NZD this year.
- A short while ago the ANZ NZ commodity price index fell by -0.5% m/m for September, an improvement from last month (-3.4%), but the y/y pace is just positive at +0.3%.
- In terms of levels, overnight highs were just above 1.1340, while yesterday's post RBNZ low came in close to 1.1240. Beyond that is the 50-day MA at 1.1198.
Fig 1: AUD/NZD Versus Citi Relative Surprise Indices
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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