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Market Coils With Cash U.S. Tsys Closed


With nothing on the local data docket, Aussie bonds gave up early gains and tracked U.S. Tsy futures lower to close with YM -2.0 and XM +2.0. Cash ACGB yields close 4-5bp higher than morning lows, with the 3/10 cash curve 4bp flattener on the day.

  • Swaps rates also reversed morning strength to close -2bp to +2bp, with the 10-year outperforming.
  • Except for June bills which closed +1.0, the bill strip was 4-6bp lower today led by the reds.
  • March meeting RBA-dated OIS holds its morning level at an 88% chance of a 25bp hike. Terminal rate expectations however move 5bp higher to be back at the top of the recent 4.10 to 4.22% trading range.
  • On the news front, Treasurer Chalmers, in an interview on Sky News Australia, appeared keen to reiterate the message that the ongoing review of the RBA is to make sure "that they are accountable for that decision as an independent organization.”
  • Looking ahead, the RBA Meeting Minutes are released tomorrow, but the focus remains on Wednesday’s Q4 WPI data.

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