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Market Inflation Expectations Firm

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  • 10Y Tsy yields are down only 1.5bps on the day after sizeable swings, driven by lower real yields (-0.53%) rather than trimmed inflation breakevens.
  • Instead, the 10Y breakeven has firmed 1bp to 2.99% and remains close to Thursday’s high of 3.03% despite another ~20bps of hikes being priced in for 2022 since then.
  • Whilst there has been a similar increase in the 5Y5Y forward breakeven to 2.39% and a larger pop higher in the 5Y5Y inflation swap to 2.67%, both remain broadly at levels that FOMC members have described recently as being anchored, but will likely have particular sensitivity to if this latest increase continues.

US 10Y breakeven (white), 5Y5Y breakeven (yellow), 5Y5Y inflation swap (green) and Fed Funds Dec'22 FOMC implied rateSource: Bloomberg

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