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Market May Look Through Any Modest Downside Data Surprises Tomorrow

CHINA DATA

Tomorrow China activity data prints for October. Also out is the 1yr MLF rate along with MLF volumes. The MLF rate is expected to be unchanged at 2.75%, while volumes are forecast to rise to 1000bn yuan, matching maturities for the month.

  • Not surprisingly, market expectations for activity data outcomes are generally softer, as lockdowns impact activity/sentiment during the month.
  • Industrial production growth is expected to pullback to 5.2% y/y from 6.3% y/y last month. Retail sales forecast to moderate to 0.7% y/y from 2.5% y/y in September. The dip in the non-manufacturing PMI back into contractionary territory is consistent with this slowing.
  • Fixed asset investment is expected at 5.9% y/y, unchanged from the previous month, but property investment is forecast to remain a decent drag (-8.3 y/y from -8.0%). The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.5%.
  • Still, there may be less impact on China asset sentiment from modest downside surprises tomorrow, given recent policy initiatives announced around CZS and the property market through the tail end of last week/over the weekend.
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