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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
BoE peak hike pricing fell to a fresh 3-month low Wednesday after well below expected CPI put a rate pause/skip on the table for Thursday's MPC decision. ECB hike pricing was little changed, with their hike cycle basically being seen as over.
- BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -2.4bp to 5.47% (22bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024) With just 22bp priced for the rest of the cycle, rates markets are no longer pricing in a full 25bp hike to come. Pricing for Thursday's decision implies around 46% probability of a 25bp hike, vs 80% Tuesday; just 18bp is cumulatively priced through the next two meetings. There are about 82bp of cuts priced for the year following the peak, at 82bp, 3-4bp more than seen Weds.
- ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -0.3bp to 4.06% (6bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023) There's just 5% probability implied of a 25bp hike at the October ECB meeting, with December odds-off as well (25%).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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