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Market Pricing In Terminal Rate At 6.75%

POLAND
  • Yesterday, NBP member Litwiniuk mentioned that the central bank may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle even though he sees inflation peaking at around 17% in Q3.
  • This follows Glapinski comments this week on Ukraine war shock being almost entirely responsible for the increase in Polish CPI in March (contributing to 2.4ppts of the 2.5ppts acceleration).
  • Some sell side analysts still believe that the tightening cycle is far from over in Poland with ING expected terminal rate to reach 7.5% this year.
  • With the 9Mx12M FRA currently trading at 120bps above the Wibor 3M, market is currently pricing in a terminal rate at 6.75% (with risks being skewed to the upside 7%).
  • This morning, economic data showed that average gross wages accelerated to 12.4% YY in March (vs. 10.6% exp.) and PPI inflation accelerated to 20% YoY (vs. 18.1% exp.).
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