Market Reverses Direction After A Solid 2Y Auction, Heavy Data Calendar Tomorrow

JGB futures are cheaper but well off the session’s worst level after today’s 2-year supply showed solid demand metrics.

• The low price met dealer expectations and the cover ratio increased to 3.777x from 3.481x in April. The auction tail was unchanged from last month. With today's auction occurring with an outright yield at its highest level since 2009, the current 2-year yield has been sufficient to generate demand in the face of uncertainty surrounding the outlook for BoJ policy.
• Outside of the previously outlined International Investment Flows, there hasn't been much in the way of domestic data drivers to flag.
• Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session ahead of Q1 GDP and PCE Deflator, and Weekly Jobless Claims data later today.
• Cash JGBs are mixed, with yield movements bounded by 1.6bps lower (20-year) and 0.7bp higher (3-year). The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.2bps lower at 1.073%, after reaching a fresh cycle high of 1.101% earlier. The market had opened the session with a bear-steepening of the curve.
• The swaps curve has twist-flattened, pivoting at the 3s, with rates +1bp to -2bps. Swap spreads are mostly narrower beyond the 2-year.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Jobless Rate, Job-To-Applicant Ratio, Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Housing Starts data alongside BoJ Rinban Operations for 3-25-year+ JGBs.