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US TSYS

US FI markets trading firmer across the board, Fed speakers trying to temper more aggressive rate hike estimates being made last week while Eurodollar Whites (EDH2-EDZ2) still pricing in near 125bps hikes by year end.

  • On Monday, short end lead rebound early in second half, 30Y Bonds back to steady after Atlanta Fed Bostic tried to temper weekend comments during Yahoo Finance interview: BOSTIC: 50-BP HIKE IS NOT MY PREFERRED POLICY ACTION FOR MARCH, Bbg
  • On Saturday FT interview Bostic said 50Bp hike in March possible. “Every option is on the table for every meeting. If the data say that things have evolved in a way that a 50-basis-point move is required or be appropriate, then I’m going to lean into that."
  • This morning's mild steepening likely just a pause as recession concern persists, yield curves continue to flatten (7s10s nearly inverted after falling below 2.0 last Fri).
  • JPM strategist Marko Kolanovic wrote Monday that recession concerns are overdone, calling for dip buying "particularly in cyclicals and small
  • caps.” Equities a little softer at the moment, ESH2 -2.25 at 4502.0.
  • On FI, Kolanovic wrote rate hike pricing has been "magnified by technical factors that can change quickly. We could see a reversal of systematic outflows, pickup in buyback activity.”
  • Currently, 2-Yr yield is down 3bps at 1.1492%, 5-Yr is down 2.9bps at 1.58%, 10-Yr is down 3.2bps at 1.7447%, and 30-Yr is down 3.3bps at 2.0747%.

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