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Market Roundup: Relative Calm Post-Claims, Fed Chair Up Next

US TSYS
Calmer markets in early Thursday trade, Tsys holding mildly higher, inside overnight range with some selling after weekly claims came out lower than expected (215k vs. 225k). Tsy 30Y bond yields currently 2.2363% -.0122 after surging to highs for the week late Wed.
  • Some follow-through from Wednesday this morning where markets went from a cessation of risk-off following better than expected ADP jobs data (+475k vs. +375k est; huge Jan up-revision from -301k to +509k) to cautious risk-on by noon as Fed Chairman Powell brought a level of normalcy back to markets.
  • Powell likely repeats stance to Senate this morning: expects March liftoff as appropriate, keeping 50bp hike in reserve if inflation stays hot later in year, gradual/predictable balance sheet runoff soon after.
  • Cleveland Fed Pres Mester interview on CNBC at 1005ET, will have chance to amend her opinion that the Fed "will be prepared to hike rates at any meeting" last time she spoke on the network on Feb 9. Fed enters policy blackout midnight Friday.
  • Markets watching Russia ground war in Ukraine closely for developments.
  • Tsy Technicals: TYM2 short-term outlook remains bullish though. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthening the current bullish theme. Resistance at 128-17, Jan 24 high was breached Tuesday. This opens the 129-00 handle next. The 20-day EMA is seen as an initial firm support. It intersects at 126-31.
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