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(U2) More Stable But Still Fragile

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(U2) Back Above Bear Trigger

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(U2) Back Above Bear Trigger

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Market Roundup: Bear Flattening Resumes

US TSYS
Rates trade weaker post data, curves bear flattening with short end underperforming (Block sale: -10,000 TUM2 105-10.88, sell through 105-11 post-time bid at 0841:030ET) after Personal Income is +0.5%/MoM vs. +0.4% est, Spending +1.1%MoM vs. +0.6% est, PCE Deflator in line at +0.9%, Employment Cost Index is +1.4% vs. 1.1% est.
  • Moderate volume pick-up (TYM appr 535k) amid two-way flow on lows, curve steepener unwinds as 2s10s flattens -5.511 to 14.599, 5s30s extends inversion to -5.827 (-3.952).
  • Technicals, continued bearish outlook: Moving average studies are in a bear mode and fresh cycle lows last week confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
  • With TYM2 trading 119-02 (-9.5) initial key support and bear trigger at 118-08 Low Apr 22; next focus on 118-02+ next, a Fibonacci projection.
  • On the flipside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 120-18+, the Apr 27 high.
  • Cross-assets:
    • Gold is up $16.02 (0.85%) at $1910.49
    • WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $1.03 (0.98%) at $106.42
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Rates trade weaker post data, curves bear flattening with short end underperforming (Block sale: -10,000 TUM2 105-10.88, sell through 105-11 post-time bid at 0841:030ET) after Personal Income is +0.5%/MoM vs. +0.4% est, Spending +1.1%MoM vs. +0.6% est, PCE Deflator in line at +0.9%, Employment Cost Index is +1.4% vs. 1.1% est.
  • Moderate volume pick-up (TYM appr 535k) amid two-way flow on lows, curve steepener unwinds as 2s10s flattens -5.511 to 14.599, 5s30s extends inversion to -5.827 (-3.952).
  • Technicals, continued bearish outlook: Moving average studies are in a bear mode and fresh cycle lows last week confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
  • With TYM2 trading 119-02 (-9.5) initial key support and bear trigger at 118-08 Low Apr 22; next focus on 118-02+ next, a Fibonacci projection.
  • On the flipside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 120-18+, the Apr 27 high.
  • Cross-assets:
    • Gold is up $16.02 (0.85%) at $1910.49
    • WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $1.03 (0.98%) at $106.42