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Market Roundup: Keeping Eye on the Fed

FI holding weaker levels on moderate volumes by midmorning (TYM2>725k), little react to morning data (import prices lower than exp at +0.0%; U/Mich sentiment 59.1 vs 64 est, "lowest reading since 2013").
  • Tsy 30Y Bond futures holding to narrow band on the way down (30YY taps 3.0836 high), curves mixed/off earlier highs (2s10s currently +2.61 at 31.04 vs. 32.843H). The 5s30s spd still holding above inversion currently at 2.968 (+.454) vs. 4.887 high earlier.
  • Focus really back on Fed policy after after Fed Chair Powell said he's prepared to consider larger than 50bp hikes in Marketplace interview late Thu (after downplaying 75bp moves at his press conference last week), as the committee adapts to "incoming data and the evolving outlook".
  • Short end weaker while levels adjust lower (again) out the curve to reflect hawkish policy to combat inflation.
  • US 10Y technicals: with TYM2 at 119-05 (-27) primary downtrend remains intact, however a corrective (bullish) cycle has been established this week and suggests potential for short-term gains. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA and this opens 120-18+, the Apr 27 high. This level represents an important short-term resistance where a break would signal scope for a stronger retracement. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 117-08+.
  • Cross-assets: WTI Crude Oil (front-month) holding gains +3.30 at $109.43; Gold down but well off lows at $1815.58 -6.24.

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