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Market Roundup: Extending Highs Post Claims, 30YY Sub-3%

US TSYS

Extending highs post data (30YY below 3.0% at 2.9843%) follows carry-over risk-off supporting rates after midweek meltdown in equities, heavy volumes (TYM>875k) as yield curves extend flattening: 5s10s deepens inversion (-1.632 low) currently -0.888.

  • Better buying across the curve after weekly claims climbs 218k vs. 200k est, Philly Fed 2.6 vs. 15.0 est. Two-way trade ahead Fri's June option expiration and the June/Sep rolling that is starting to ramp up (though roll volumes still modest).
  • Stocks weaker but off late overnight lows (SPX emini futures ESM2 currently -30 at 3892.75). Supply shocks and operation costs still hitting large retailers: Kohl's -11.0% after earnings miss, profit guidance cut. Ross Stores (RSS) and Applied Materials (AMAT) annc after the close.
  • Unscheduled Fed-speak: nothing really new from KC Fed George on CNBC noting inflation is "too high", Fed needs to "bring that down" while "financial conditions beginning to tighten". George "very comfortable" w/ 50bp hike.
  • US 10Y technicals with TYM2 currently trading 120-05.5 (+23.5): Firmer but below 120-18+ High Apr 27. The trend direction is down and recent short-term gains are still considered corrective. Apr 27 high/key resistance represents an important short-term resistance where a break would signal scope for a stronger retracement. Key support and the bear trigger remains 117-08+, the May 9 low.

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