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Market Roundup: Random Vol Continues

US TSYS

Random volatility/thin liquidity continues. Tsys were bouncing back near earlier post-data highs -- have reversed course, 30Y Bonds now mildly weaker as they gap lower/extend session lows reportedly in sympathy w/ selling in EGBs. Yield curves bear steepening off lows, 2s10s now +2.883 at 28.698 vs 23.711 low.

  • Stocks have reversed gains after the open: SPX eminis trading mildly weaker (ESM2 -20.0 at 4079.0) following lower guidance from Microsoft (4Q EPS $2.24-$2.32, SAW $2.28-$2.35), Ford auto sales 154,461, DOWN 4.5% Y/Y bbg.
  • Crude recovers from earlier losses, takes another leg higher after headlines annc EU approves "partial Russian oil ban, sanctions on Sberbank", Bbg.
  • June 10Y futures trading around steady to +1 at 118-21.5 while resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 120-11+ today, remains intact. A clear breach of this EMA is required to pave the way for a stronger recovery towards the 122-00 handle.
  • Recent gains still considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. Key support and the bear trigger is 116-21, May 9 low. Initial firm support to watch is 118-01+, May 18 low.
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