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Market Roundup: Short End Anchored Ahead Expected 75Bp Hike

US TSYS
Tsys moving off recent session highs, curves holding flatter with the short end underperforming ahead this afternoon's FOMC policy annc. Again, 75bp hike widely expected/priced in, Fed chairman Powell's press conference 30 minutes after the release (no summary of economic projections at the current meeting, next on Sep 20-21).
  • First-half data reacts: Tsy futures trimmed pre-data gains, anticipating 2Q GDP up revision up after better than expected Durable Goods new orders +1.9% vs. -0.4% est, smaller than expected trade deficit -$98.18B vs. -$103.0B est.
  • Rates see-sawed higher into/extended session highs after large miss on pending home sales and the worst M/M figure since April 2020. From the NAR: "As escalating mortgage rates and housing prices impacted potential buyers, pending sales fell in all four major regions in June 2022, with the West experiencing the largest monthly decline." (The West region M/M figure was -15.9%).
  • Moderate overall volumes w/ TYU2 just over 600k at the moment, TYU2 contract maintains a firmer short-term tone and price is trading closer to the top of this month's range. Attention is on the bull trigger at 120-16+, the Jul 6 high.
  • Cross assets: Equities extending gains, ESU2 +55.25 at 3978.5; Spot gold extends reversed early gains/near steady at 1716.85, crude makes gaining: WTI +2.20 at 97.18.
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