Market Roundup: Continuing Claims Rise, Geopol Risk

Treasury futures currently trading firmer, near middle of session range after scaling back opening support that drove 30YY down to 2.9246%.

Curves bear flattening with short end lagging, 2s10s hits inverted low of -39.611 a lvl not seen since Sep 2000.

• After initial post-BOE rate annc bounce, Bonds extended highs with desks citing mix of higher than expected continuing claims (1.416M vs 1.383M est) as well as geopolitical risk as tensions in APAC region. Tension high after China launched multiple rockets over Taiwan, five of which landed inside Japan's EEZ region. Def Dept asst sec Kirby said he hopes China is not trying to engineer a conflict in region after House Sp Pelosi visit Tuesday.
• Technicals: Treasuries traded higher to begin the week, putting prices clear of resistance at 120-16+. This soon reversed, and the contract remains below 122-02, Aug 02 high. S/T trend conditions are bullish though and the 50-day EMA, at 119-03, represents a key support. A resumption of strength would refocus attention on 112-02 where a break would resume the uptrend and open 122-29+, the Mar 31 high. A break of the 50-day EMA would concern bulls.
• Data on tap for Friday: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (250k est), Change in Private Payrolls (230k est), Unemployment Rate (3.6%), Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.3%), Labor Force Participation Rate (62.2%), Consumer Credit ($26.0B).
• Cross asset update: Stocks marginally higher (SPX eminis +2.25 at 4158.5) as heavy earnings docket continues; Spot Gold surge +18.35 at 1783.56; Crude recedes (WTI -0.33 at 90.33).
• Currently, 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 3.0631%, 5-Yr is down 3bps at 2.7956%, 10-Yr is down 2.7bps at 2.6774%, and 30-Yr is down 0.1bps at 2.9445%.