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Market Roundup: Better (or Less Worse) Than Expected Data Driver

US TSYS

Tsy futures trading little above midmorning lows, breaking narrow overnight range following decent Durable Goods report w/ revisions: new orders +0.0% vs. +0.8% est, however, June revised to +2.2%; ex-trans +0.3% vs. +0.2% est.

  • That set the tone with 30YY tapping 3.3114% high after Pending home sales posted a smaller-than-expected decline in July of -1% (cons. -2.6%) from a slightly downward revised -8.9% in June for -22.5% Y/Y.
  • Yield curves scaling back portion on Tue's steepening, 2s10s -1.242 at -27.018 vs. -28.560 low.
  • Technicals: TYU2 currently trading 117-08 (-12) vs. 117-04 low. The 10Y future maintains a bearish tone following recent weakness that resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA levels. 118-05, 50.0% of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 bull cycle, has also been cleared and this signals scope for an extension towards 117-14+ next, the Jul 21 low and Tuesday’s low print. Support at 117-07, the 61.8% retracement, has been tested, but a clear break below is required before 116-26+ support can be considered.
  • Focus remains on KC Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy, starts Friday w/ Chairman Powell speaking at 1000ET (0800 local), text is expected but no Q&A. Markets keen on pivot after cooling data or will the Fed maintain hawkish stance to squelch inflation.
  • Currently, 2-Yr yield is up 7bps at 3.3701%, 5-Yr is up 6.5bps at 3.2296%, 10-Yr is up 5.4bps at 3.1001%, and 30-Yr is up 3.1bps at 3.2857%.
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