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Market Roundup: Back in Range, Large 10s30s Steepeners Noted

US TSYS
Tsys experiencing a whip-saw session in the lead up to this afternoon's FOMC annc, currently trading stronger, inside a wide range (30YY 3.5780% low / 3.6429% high).
Tsys extended early highs after ADP jobs data climbed +106k, much less than estimated 180k jobs.
  • Fast two-way trade between Mfg PMI and ISM saw bonds sell-off/extend lows (ISM mfg index comes out lower than est at 47.4 (48.0 est), mfg orders, production weakest since mid 2020. JOLTS job openings rise to 11.01M vs. 10.3 est.).
  • The sharp bond-lead sell-off likely driven by two large steepener Blocks: total +20,000 TYH3 at 114-29 to -28.5 vs. -8,700 USH initially from 130-19 down to 130-12. Tsy 30Y futures fell to 129-31 low by midmorning before staging a rebound over the last 90 minutes to 130-24.
  • General quiet after London close, market focus turns to FOMC annc at 1400ET followed by Chairman Powell's press conf at 1430.
  • Fed funds implied hike for Feb'23 steady at 26.0bp, Mar'23 cumulative 45.8bp (-.2) to 4.788%, May'23 57.4bp (+.9) to 4.904%, terminal at 4.91% in Jun'23.
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