MNI BRIEF: BOE Rate Cut Closer But Still Some Way Off - Pill

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 23

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: Kaplan Says Loose Fiscal Is Holding Up Cut

MNI BRIEF: Hungary Central Bank Cuts To 7.75% As Expected

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US Treasury Auction Calendar

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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Market Roundup, Bond Lead Sell-Off

US TSYS
Tsys selling off across the board, Bonds near recent lows (30YY +.0901 at 3.6514%) w/ curves bear steepening (2s10s +3.090 at -70.617). Decent volumes (TYH3 >855k) on a relatively subdued session before the Fed heads into policy blackout at midnight.
  • Lone data point underscores move: Existing home sales fell by less than expected in December, -1.5% M/M (cons -3.4%) after -7.9% M/M, faring better than the latest slide in pending home sales. It left an 18% decline on the year for the sharpest annual decline since 2008.
  • While Bonds dragging short end rates lower, market expectation for 25bp hike at next FOMC on Feb 1 stable: Fed funds implied hike for Feb'23 26.3bp, Mar'23 cumulative steady 45.6bp to 4.788%, May'23 steady at 56.1bp to 4.893%, terminal dips slightly to 4.895% in Jun'23.
  • No concerted headline driver weighing on long end as USH heads back near early Wed pre-BoJ annc lvl, is more tied concerted commentary from various central bank officials (not just Fed) on improved global outlook in past couple wks lending to intermediate-long end pressure on those growth prospects.
  • Up ahead: Fed Gov Waller, speaks at Council on Foreign relations at 1300ET.
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