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Market Roundup: Curve Inversion Headed To 40Y Lows

US TSYS

Still weaker, bonds gradually climbing off opening levels - while yield curves extend inversion back near mid-Dec's multi decade lows (2s10s currently -82.400 vs. Dec 7, 2022 low of -85.240 - last seen late 1981).

  • Heavy volumes, TYH3 over 1.3M before noon as FI markets continue to price in higher rates for long following last Fri's blowout January jobs surge (+517k vs. +189k est) while annual benchmark revision left a notably stronger than first thought trend through 2H22 and with strong revisions for hours worked.
  • No significant economic data next few sessions, markets will be eager to hear more from Fed speakers following last Fri's job surge. That said, no scheduled Fed speakers today so far, Fed Chair Powell expected Tue at Economic Club of Washington interview (no text) at 1200ET, Fed VC Barr on financial inclusion (text and moderated Q&A) at 1400ET.
  • Massive option volumes, particularly in SOFR derivatives favoring low delta puts and put spds on net.
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