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Market Roundup: Early Vol Fading

US TSYS

Tsys weaker in midmorning trade, well off session lows amid relatively volatile early session trade. Tsys bounced after latest Employment Cost Index came out in-line w/ estimates at 1.2% (1.3% prior) but with a relatively larger moderation in private sector wages within, PCE in-line as well at +0.4%. (down-revision to core PCE weaker than expected but was all rounding).

  • Futures reverse course, extend lows following 10Y Block sale at 0836:03: -8,700 TYZ2 111-05.5, sell through 111-07 post-time bid. Protracted round of support followed, yields fell from 4.1681% high to 4.0791% low in lead-up to U-Mich sentiment (1Y inflation exp up to 5% from 4.7% prior) while Much weaker than expected pending home sales in Sept (-10% M/M vs cons -4.0%), suggesting the slide in existing home sales isn't done yet.
  • Tsys back near middle of session range, yield curves flatter (2s10s -4.452 at -40.609), while equities marked session highs as IT sector shares rebounded from heavy selling Thu: Intel (INTC) +7.33%, Apple (APPL) +6.32%.

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