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Market Roundup: German Inf Data Still Delayed; Tactical Month-End Play

US TSYS

Tsys trading firmer at the moment - inside range with Bonds well off early session highs. Several factors at play as markets otherwise await Wed's FOMC policy annc.

  • US FI broke higher after Q4 ECI data rises less than expected: 1% vs. 1.1% est (Q3 1.2%), equities reacted positively as well as SPX eminis bounced back to steady at the time (ESH3 4032.5). Rates peaked following round of mixed data (Home Prices dip 0.1%, Chicago PMI contracts: 44.3 vs. Dec 45.1, Consumer Confidence decline 107.1; EST. 109.0).
  • Rate support evaporated around midmorning, long end extended session lows amid spurious reports that German inflation data (delayed since late last wk) had been released - it has not. MNI has received nothing from German stats agency that can back up any German Jan inflation release. MNI's latest confirmation is that the Destatis release has been delayed, and publication date to be confirmed later this week.
  • Meanwhile, brief opportunity for tactical month-end buyers: reversal in Tsys (partially spurred by Block sale of 6.6k FVH3 at 109-06) presented a speculative opp ahead month end rebalancing today. Indeed, Tsys have gradually rebounded off lows, 30YY currently 3.6537% (+.0016 ) vs. 3.6820% high.
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