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Market Roundup Paring Early Risk-On Tone

US TSYS
  • Front month US Treasury futures are climbing off recent session lows (10Y yield at 3.5752%, 2Y yield well above 4% at 4.1454%), little reaction to surge in latest existing home sales data: +14.5% to 4.58M SAAR vs. estimate of 4.2M +5%.
  • From a technical perspective, front month 10Y futures remain volatile as the price continues to pull away from yesterday’s high of 116-24. TYM3 currently at 114-15.5 (-19.5), above next support at 114-01+, the Mar 17 low and firmer support is seen at 113-12, the 50-day EMA.
  • A break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. A move higher higher would once again refocus attention on the key resistance zone between 116-24, yesterday’s high and 116-28+, the Jan 19 high. This zone is a bull trigger.
  • Stocks are trimming gains at the moment (ESM3 +29.0 at 4012), bank shares (and energy stocks) still outperforming, however: First Republic (FRC) up 31% at the moment, USB +6.5, Comerica +5.95%.
  • Key short-term resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA which today intersects at 4025.01. This EMA represents an important pivot level. While price remains below the EMA, it is likely that gains are a correction ahead of a resumption of the downtrend. A clear break of the average would change that and highlight a stronger bullish environment.
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