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Market Roundup: Push-Back on Soft Oct CPI

US TSYS

Tsys remain weaker, retreating back to narrow overnight session range after bonds bounced/extended session highs in midmorning trade. Yield curves back to bear flattening (2s10s -1.797 at -54.178) on decent volumes (TYZ2>850k) ahead noon.

No scheduled data release, focus remains on Fed speak and inflation metrics after last Thu's softer than anticipated CPI.
  • Fed Gov Waller eco-outlook from Australia last night: ""We're at a point we can start thinking maybe of going to a slower pace," Waller said, but "we're not softening...Quit paying attention to the pace and start paying attention to where the endpoint is going to be. Until we get inflation down, that endpoint is still a ways out there" DJ reported.
  • Coming up: Fed VC Brainard eco-outlook, Bbg event, no text, Q&A at 1130ET.
  • Just out: jump in median inflation expectations (1-Year: 5.94% in Oct vs 5.44% Sep) in the NY Fed's consumer survey looks largely a result of a rebound in food and energy price expectations.
  • Short end under heavy pressure, lead quarterly Dec'22 Eurodollar futures -0.055 at 94.96; Fed funds implied hike in Dec'22 steady at 50.9bp, Feb'23 cumulative 88.4bp to 4.737% vs. 86.9bp earlier, terminal 4.95% in Jun'23 (5.08% pre-CPI).

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