November 11, 2022 16:59 GMT
Market Roundup: Small Unwind
Tsys pared back a small portion of Thu's post-CPI rally this morning, holding moderately lower/off lows on lighter volumes (TYZ2<570k) w/ Veterans Day bank holiday sees trading floor closed, but full FI session on Globex, NYSE and NASDAQ open as usual.
- Brief two-way trade after preliminary November reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan of 54.7 vs. 59.5 est, 1- and 5Y inflation expectations edged up: 1Y 5.1% (5.1% EXP., 5.0% PRIOR), 5Y 3.0% (2.9% EXP., 2.9% PRIOR).
- Markets still digesting the Oct CPI data: An unexpectedly softer U.S. CPI report for October paints a rosier picture of moderating inflation than is likely the case, Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer told MNI.
- Roughly 60% of the CPI basket is still rising at rates above 5%, and alternative measures of underlying inflation remain "very elevated, reflecting broad-based price pressure," he said.
- Nevertheless, follow-through post-CPI bid in in lead quarterly Dec'22 (EDZ2) trades +0.015 at 95.01 (94.885 pre-CPI Thu) after latest 3M LIBOR set' falls -0.04357 to 4.60614% (+0.05585/wk).
- Fed funds implied hike for Dec'22 at 50.9bp vs. 57.5bp early Thu, Feb'23 cumulative 86.9bp to 4.712% (vs. 96.3bp to 4.81% pre-CPI), terminal 4.91% in Jun'23 (5.08% pre-CPI)