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Market Roundup: Strong FI Gains, Dec 75Bp Hike Pricing Cools

US TSYS
Tsy futures trading well bid, little off midmorning highs after 30YY fell to 4.2216% low before rebounding last half hour t0 4.2619% - early Friday lvl as FI continues to reassess rate hike expectations for year end after SF Fed Daly voiced concern over tightening monetary policy too much last Friday.
  • Yields curves bull flattening (2s10s -8.853 at -35.507) despite the strong support in short end: Dec 2Y futures +5 at 102-11.5, 5Y futures +19.5 at 106-24.75.
  • Short end 3M Eurodollar climbing as hike expectations for Dec move closer to 50bp than last week's 75bp pricing - Eurodollar White pack (EDZ2-EDU3) +0.035-0.070, Reds (EDZ3-EDU4) +0.095-0.125.
  • Risk appetite continues as stocks continue to gain: SPX emini +41.75 at 3850.75 - putting the index back to Sep 21 levels.
  • Softer than expected data contributing to today's moves:
    • US OCT PHILADELPHIA FED NONMFG INDEX -14.9
    • US AUG FHFA HPI SA -0.7% V -0.6% JUL; +11.9% Y/Y
    • S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index Up 13.1% Y/Y; Est 14.0%
    • US OCT. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 102.5; EST. 105.9
    • US Oct. Richmond Fed Factory Index at -10 -bbg (-5 expected, 0 prior)
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