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Market Roundup: Taking Dovish Cues While They Can

US TSYS

Tsys continued to ratchet higher this morning, near highs at the moment w/ 30YY down to 4.0696% vs. 4.2033% ahead the NY open.

  • Impetus largely after ECB policy annc: though in-line w/ expected 75bp rate hike, markets fixated on discussion over ECB forward rate guidance turns dovish (though ECB Lagarde admits job of normalizing rates not finished, did not discuss QT).
  • Not as striking as Wed's less than expected 50bp hike from the BOC, but US markets nervous over additional 75bp rate hikes going into year-end, are eager to take the cue and (continue) to unwind restrictive expectations into year end.
  • As noted Wed, exogenous central bank decisions unlikely to sway the FOMC, particularly next week's FOMC where 75bp is considered a lock. Fed Chairman Powell likely to push back on less hawkish rate hike optimism and reiterate Sep messaging/DOT plot guidance. (Reminder: next employment report (covering October) is on November 4 - after the FOMC. An in-line read will likely tip the scales back toward 75bp hike in Dec).
  • Data roundup: Tsys pared losses after round of mixed to in-line data: Q3 GDP better than exp (+2.6% vs. +2.4% est), core PCE and weekly jobless claims largely in-line (continuing claims higher 1.438M vs. 1.390M est), durable goods weaker than exp (0.4% vs. 0.6% est).

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