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Market Roundup: Top-End Weaker Session Range, Oct NFP, Fed Speak Friday

US TSYS

Tsy futures weaker but at the top end of session range ahead midday, yield curves near inverted lows (2s10s currently -3.322 at -55.656). Tsys bounced off midmorning lows (30YY tapped 4.2298%) after weaker than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing at 54.4 vs expected 55.3 (56.7 prior), ending for consecutive months of stronger data.

  • Tsys opened weaker, adding to Wed's post-FOMC action after Chairman Powell's hawkish rebuttal to the expected 75bp rate hike while short end back to gradually pricing in an unprecedented fifth 75bp hike in December.
  • Little react to expected BOE 75bp hike earlier while Tsys extended lows after small pick-up in continuing claims to 1.485M (1.450M est), weekly claims little softer at 218k vs. 220k est. Unit Labor Costs lower than expected at 3.5% vs. 4.0% est.
  • With session data out of the way, focus turns to Friday's October employment data: +200k estimated vs. +263k prior.
  • Fed out of media blackout Friday: Boston Fed Pres Collins on economy/policy outlook at a Brookings conf (text and Q&A expected) at 1000ET, while CNBC expected to interview Richmond Fed Pres Barkin at same time.

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