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Market Struggling to Assess Ongoing Geopol Risk Premium: Global X

OIL

The market has really struggled in 2024 to assess the geopolitical risk premium for the two-pronged wars impacting oil – the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East’s Israel-Hamas conflict, Rohan Redd, director of research at Global X told CNBC.

  • Weaker economic demand, especially Chinese also remains an issue. “Any decline in economic data globally, either from the West or from China will start to have a pull down on oil prices,” Reddy said.
  • “These two issues [economic and geopolitical] are playing tug of war and are balancing oil prices over the course of this year,” Reddy added.
  • Geopolitical risk impacts remain hardest to quantify, as the events are very fluid but can impacts prices significantly.
  • Reddy said that an escalating conflict drawing in major Middle Eastern players and obstructing major ports or infrastructure could spike oil prices by $10-$15/b.
  • However, if the war remains contained, the rise may only be $5-$10/b.
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