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Markets Await Western Response to Russian Actions

FOREX
  • Global equity markets are recovering off lows ahead of the NY crossover, with the e-mini S&P rallying back above the Monday close to look more settled after a shakier overnight session. For currency markets, this has translated to weaker haven currencies, resulting in the CHF and JPY being among the session's worst performers in contrast with the Monday session.
  • The proto risk-on sentiment seen across assets seems counter-intuitive as the Russian Parliament formally adopt the 'Friendship Treaty' with the separatist states in Donetsk and Luhansk, sending military supplies and aid to the disputed territories. Nonetheless, there are indications of a cautious stabilization and stalemate for now that lowers the risk of a near-term armed conflict. The separatist territories have talked down the requirement of military assets, while Western leaders appear to be favouring a step-by-step approach to sanctions for now. This suggests a fragile de-escalation is the most likely path forward for now.
  • Commodity-tied currencies are leading gains, with NOK outstripping all others as oil prices surge further still. Brent crude futures touched $99.50/bbl, the highest level since 2014 - with the Russia - Europe Nordstream 2 gas pipeline expected to be a victim of any sanctions response on the continent. As a result, USD/NOK has reversed well back below the 9.00 handle.
  • Data due Tuesday includes prelim US PMI data for February and the conference board consumer confidence release. Central bank speakers include BoE's Ramsden and Fed's Bostic.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
Energy BulletsCommodities
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
Energy BulletsCommodities

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