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Markets Digest Pension Bill Vote

CHILE
  • Markets continue to digest the Senate rejection of the fourth pension withdrawal bill. Yesterday's reaction was largely positive across the board for local assets, with the currency and IPSA index jumping and the Camara Curve shifting roughly 30 basis points lower on the news.
  • While the news remains a short-term positive development, it is worth reiterating the possibility of another round of pension withdrawals does still exist, albeit the probability has significantly decreased. JPMorgan highlight as such:
    • "It's worth noting the bill may not be completely dead. Indeed, given the Deputies Chamber approved the bill and the Senate rejection, the PFW4 bill now moves to a mixed commission of deputies and senators that is to convene after the elections."
    • They added, "Given the ups and downs of Chilean politics, we would be cautious in completely disregarding the possibility of a new pension fund withdrawal. That said, we also believe that at this juncture the most likely scenario is for no additional pension fund withdrawals, as the macro-cyclical conditions basically argue against such an idea and the political system seems poised to aim for the overhaul of the pension system."
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