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Markets Hear From GC Members at Either End of Hawk/Dove Spectrum This Week

FOREX
  • Early European trades see the USD recoup the (pretty minor) weakness across the early Asia-Pac session, putting EUR/USD back to flat and retaining the S/T bearish outlook for the pair. Continuation lower here would signal scope for 1.0796 first, the Feb29 low and open the bear trigger further out at 1.0695.
  • ECB speak is thick and fast this week - with Holzmann, Muller, Cipollone and Villeroy - meaning markets will here from some of the most hawkish GC members (Holzmann, Muller) and the most dovish (Cipollone). Holzmann most recently warned that markets should consider the risks of no ECB rate cuts this year - so markets will be looking for this rhetoric to continue at his speech today.
  • Worth considering month-end flow this week given the partial market closures on Friday - which could make for lumpier, inconsistent month-end trading. Wednesday marks effective value date month-end.
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