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Markets Prepare For November Inflation (9am London time)

POLAND
  • We previously mentioned that even though the NBP refused to communicate if the first two hikes were implying that the NBP was starting a tightening cycle, odds for another hike at the December meeting next week (Dec 8) are very likely.
  • The magnitude of the hike will strongly depend on the November inflation data coming out today (9am London time).
  • The market expects inflation to accelerate to 7.3% YoY in November in Poland (up from 6.8% the previous month).
  • A higher-than-expected print would imply a more aggressive hike from NBP (another 75bps) and therefore could lead to some PLN appreciation.
  • A 75bps hike would bring the policy rate up to 2%, its highest level since February 2015.
  • A print below (or at) expectations could lead to some PLN depreciation.
  • Even though inflation remains the main risk in Poland, the rising uncertainty over the economic outlook combined with the ongoing political conflict with the EU could continue to weigh on the zloty in the medium term.
  • Next resistance to watch on EURPLN stands at 4.7420; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 4.7940.
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