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Markets Re-Open Following Holiday, Election Reaction

COLOMBIA
  • As a reminder, leftist candidate Gustavo Petro won 40.3% of the vote in a field of six candidates in the first-round of the presidential election.
    • In a rebuke of the conservative class that has long ruled Colombia, voters gave the second-highest number of votes -- 28.1% -- to a populist real-estate tycoon, Rodolfo Hernández, who rails against corruption in short social-media videos.
    • Notably, after the election, Federico Gutiérrez endorsed Rodolfo Hernández for the second round. The two men will now compete in a runoff election on June 19 that is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in the country’s history.
  • Local assets including the Colombian Peso are expected to outperform after the result of the first-round election, in which independent outsider Rodolfo Hernandez had a stronger-than-expected performance.
  • Analysts appear unanimous in regarding the result as a short-term positive for local markets as pre-election polls suggest Hernández will be a very strong contender in the runoff. Furthermore, Petro’s share of the valid vote in the first round was well below the 45% threshold that analysts predicted as needed to give him a clear edge in the second-round vote.
    • Markets will react to the first-round results today as the country observed a holiday on Monday.
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