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Markets Roundup

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures still trading modestly firmer -- near recent session lows but inside the narrow overnight range. There didn't appear to be any particular headline driver for futures reversal off early session highs, however.
  • Incoming Treasury auctions a known factor ($65B 13W, $58B 26W bill auctions, $42B 2Y Note auction) this morning, while pick-up in high-grade corporate debt issuance could be a factor for the dip in Treasury futures amid rate lock-hedge sales.
  • It's a little too early to site month/quarter-end positioning for the move, though nascent asset allocation from Treasury futures to stocks can't be ruled out. Underscoring this morning's retreat, the Sep'23 10Y contract trend outlook is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. Recently, support at 112-29+, the May 26 / 30 low
  • Treasury curves extend inversion this morning, 2s10s taps -103.365 low, nearing March 40+ low around -111.0. “Although the cash curves are closing in on recent troughs," Goldman Sachs analysts write the "OIS and SOFR swap curves are still some distance away. Some of this weakness is likely the result of an anticipation of heavy front-end supply, but we expect it will not remain contained to front-end swap spreads as the full extent of supply increases becomes clear.”
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