MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 27

MNI BRIEF: BOJ: Rate Hike Chance Nearing; Mull Patiently

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY6.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1893 Fri; -2.12% Y/Y

MNI JAPAN NOV FACTORY OUTPUT DROPS 2.3% M/M; OCT +2.8%

MNI JAPAN NOV JOBLESS RATE AT 2.5%, UNCHANGED FROM OCT

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -93 BCF TO 3,529 BCF DEC 27 WK

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS -1K TO 219K IN DEC 21 WK

MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +5.0% V YR AGO MO

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Markets Roundup

US TSYS
  • Rates are trading mixed after the bell, curves scaling back Monday's curve steepening with short end rates underperformed all day. Contributing Block/cross in late trade was a large Tsy 5Y/30Y Ultra flattener posted at 1517:53ET: -20,852 FVU3 105-14.25, sell through 105-16.5 post-time bid (DV01 $857k) vs. +4,363 WNU3 123-20, post-time bid (DV01 $856.8).
  • Front month Sep'23 Treasury futures extended cycle lows with 10s tapping 109-28 (-6.5) overnight and again at midmorning before see-sawing back to 109-01 at the moment, yield marking 4.3618% this morning, the highest level since late 2007.
  • Rate hike projections through year end inched higher: Sep 20 FOMC is 16% w/ implied rate change of +4bp to 5.369%. November cumulative of +11.6bp at 5.445, December cumulative of 10.8bp at 5.437%. Fed terminal at 5.44% in Nov'23.
  • Little react to morning data: Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey saw regional activity slip in August, falling to -13.1 vs +1.4 prior, while a drop in Existing home sales -2.2% M/M (cons -0.2%) spurred some short covering.
  • Trading desks are anticipating a hawkish tone from Fed Chairman Powell at the economic summit in Jackson Hole that informally kicks off Thursday evening and runs through Saturday.
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