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Markets Roundup: Extending Highs

US TSYS
  • Tsy futures are extending session highs again in the last couple minutes, latest headlines from Fed Daly, Mester and Barr are on the dovish side of balanced: Barr "more work to do but close to the end"; Daly "risks becoming less unbalanced, fed decisions getting harder, more data reliant".
  • Curves paring back from earlier steeper levels (2s10s currently +1.466 at -87.585) as short end lags in latest move (not to mention over 20,000 TUU3 block sales various prices this morning).
  • Currently, Sep'23 10Y futures are +12 at 111-01.5 high, initial technical resistance at 111-15, July 6 high.
  • Projected rate hike expectations holding steady to this mornings levels: July 26 FOMC is 89% w/ implied rate of +22.2bp to 5.298%. September fully pricing hike w/ cumulative of +28bp at 5.355%, November cumulative of 34.4bp at 5.42%, December cumulative 29.7bp at 5.373%. Fed terminal holding at 5.415% in Nov'23.
  • Focus remains on latest CPI data this Wednesday.

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