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Markets Roundup: Measure Twice, Cut Once

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures drifting near late session lows after briefly paring losses as markets digested the January FOMC minutes. Focus on policy maker concern of cutting rates too soon vs. waiting too long took precedent as rates clung near lows.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures currently -8.5 at 109-21.5, vs 109-18 low; initial technical support of 109-17/16+ (50.0% of Oct 19 - Dec 27 climb / Low Feb 14) earlier to 109-15 low. Resistance above at 110-17.5 (Feb 15 high). Curves mildly flatter: 2s10s -0.163 at -34.063, 10Y yield +0.0394 at 4.3147%.
  • Large flattener Block posted at 1032:32ET adding to dip in the short end to intermediates: -35,000 TUH4 102-01.38, post time offer, DV01 $1,337M vs. +14,500 UXYH4 113-25.5, buy through 113-23 post time offer, DV01 $1.328M.
  • Projected rate cut pricing are consolidating from this morning's levels: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -6.8% vs. -9.6% earlier w/ cumulative of -1.7bp at 5.312%; May 2024 at -26.6% vs. -30.0% w/ cumulative -8.3bp at 5.245%; June 2024 -60.5% vs. -64.9% w/ cumulative cut -23.5bp at 5.094%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
  • An hour prior to the minutes, Treasury futures gapped lower after $16B 20Y bond auction (912810TZ1) drew a large tail: 4.595% high yield vs. 4.562% WI; 2.39x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.53x
  • Limited reaction, if any to data (MBA Mtg Apps -10.6%) nor Fed speak. Boston Fed Collins fireside chat (no text, Q&A) later this evening at 0730ET.
  • Corporate earnings after the close: Nvidia, Synopsys, Etsy, APA Corp, Rivian Automotive, Ansys Inc, Lucid, Marathon Oil.
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