MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, December 9

MNI BRIEF: China To Strengthen Policy Easing In 2025: Poliburo

MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov Sentiment, Outlook Indexes Rise

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.36% In Week of Dec 6

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Markets Roundup: Measure Twice, Cut Once

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures drifting near late session lows after briefly paring losses as markets digested the January FOMC minutes. Focus on policy maker concern of cutting rates too soon vs. waiting too long took precedent as rates clung near lows.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures currently -8.5 at 109-21.5, vs 109-18 low; initial technical support of 109-17/16+ (50.0% of Oct 19 - Dec 27 climb / Low Feb 14) earlier to 109-15 low. Resistance above at 110-17.5 (Feb 15 high). Curves mildly flatter: 2s10s -0.163 at -34.063, 10Y yield +0.0394 at 4.3147%.
  • Large flattener Block posted at 1032:32ET adding to dip in the short end to intermediates: -35,000 TUH4 102-01.38, post time offer, DV01 $1,337M vs. +14,500 UXYH4 113-25.5, buy through 113-23 post time offer, DV01 $1.328M.
  • Projected rate cut pricing are consolidating from this morning's levels: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -6.8% vs. -9.6% earlier w/ cumulative of -1.7bp at 5.312%; May 2024 at -26.6% vs. -30.0% w/ cumulative -8.3bp at 5.245%; June 2024 -60.5% vs. -64.9% w/ cumulative cut -23.5bp at 5.094%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
  • An hour prior to the minutes, Treasury futures gapped lower after $16B 20Y bond auction (912810TZ1) drew a large tail: 4.595% high yield vs. 4.562% WI; 2.39x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.53x
  • Limited reaction, if any to data (MBA Mtg Apps -10.6%) nor Fed speak. Boston Fed Collins fireside chat (no text, Q&A) later this evening at 0730ET.
  • Corporate earnings after the close: Nvidia, Synopsys, Etsy, APA Corp, Rivian Automotive, Ansys Inc, Lucid, Marathon Oil.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.