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Markets Roundup: Treading Water, 30Y Underperforming Ahead Nov Minutes

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures hold inside a narrow range, paring gains after the 10Y TIPS auction drew 2.180% yield vs. 2.94% prior. Curves flatter with 2s-10s holding modest gains ahead of the November FOMC minutes release at the top of the hour (3M10Y +1.907 at -97.681, 2Y10Y +3.603 at -45.924).
  • Minutes will be scrutinized for further insight into how participants viewed the impact of tighter financial conditions on the outlook, particularly given that they were added to the Statement as a factor that was "likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation". (MNI's review of the November meeting is here.)
  • Tsy futures had extended highs earlier following lower than expected Existing Home Sales data (3.79M vs. 3.9M est, 3.95M prior/rev), MoM (-4.1% vs. -1.5M est, -2.2% prior/rev). Dec'23 10Y futures had tapped 109-03.5 high (+8.5).
  • TYZ3 trades 108-27.5 last, still well above initial technical support below at 108-04 (50-day EMA). Initial technical resistance at 109-08+ (High Nov 17).
  • Deceptively heavy volumes (TYZ3 >1.8M) is due to a surge in quarterly futures rolling ahead First Notice on Nov 30.
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