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Markets Roundup: Tsys Off Lows, Risk Unwinds Into Weekend

US TSYS
  • Not much of a change since midday where Treasury futures climbed to session highs after a weaker open where Mar'24 10Y futures tapped the lowest level since late November '23.
  • Treasury curves bull flattened (2s10s -4.271 at -43.590 -- Jan 3 low) on the bounce, no obvious headline driver, though trading desks widely citied a (modest) reversal in equities off contract highs as trading accounts took profits ahead the weekend.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures had tested Thursday lows overnight (109-09) neared the 110 handle in late trade, climbing to 109-31 (+15), 10Y yield -.0629 at 4.25789%. Heavy volumes (TYH4>3.8M) tied to the roll to Jun'24 contract continues. Technical resistance above at 110-15.5 (20-day EMA).
  • Projected rate cut pricing holds steady for the next couple meetings while June is off this morning's lows: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -2.0% w/ cumulative of -0.5bp at 5.324%; May 2024 at -21.2% w/ cumulative -5.8bp at 5.271%; June 2024 -62.6% vs. -55.4% earlier w/ cumulative cut -21.4bp at 5.132%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
  • Look ahead: Next Monday sees New Home Sales (680k est vs 664k prior), MoM (2.4% est vs. 8.0% prior) at 1000ET, followed by Dallas Fed Mfg Activity Index at 1030ET. Flurry of Treasury auctions start Monday due to the short month: $63B 2Y note and $70B 26W bills at 1130ET, followed by $79B 13W bills and $64B 5Y Note auctions.
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  • Not much of a change since midday where Treasury futures climbed to session highs after a weaker open where Mar'24 10Y futures tapped the lowest level since late November '23.
  • Treasury curves bull flattened (2s10s -4.271 at -43.590 -- Jan 3 low) on the bounce, no obvious headline driver, though trading desks widely citied a (modest) reversal in equities off contract highs as trading accounts took profits ahead the weekend.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures had tested Thursday lows overnight (109-09) neared the 110 handle in late trade, climbing to 109-31 (+15), 10Y yield -.0629 at 4.25789%. Heavy volumes (TYH4>3.8M) tied to the roll to Jun'24 contract continues. Technical resistance above at 110-15.5 (20-day EMA).
  • Projected rate cut pricing holds steady for the next couple meetings while June is off this morning's lows: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -2.0% w/ cumulative of -0.5bp at 5.324%; May 2024 at -21.2% w/ cumulative -5.8bp at 5.271%; June 2024 -62.6% vs. -55.4% earlier w/ cumulative cut -21.4bp at 5.132%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
  • Look ahead: Next Monday sees New Home Sales (680k est vs 664k prior), MoM (2.4% est vs. 8.0% prior) at 1000ET, followed by Dallas Fed Mfg Activity Index at 1030ET. Flurry of Treasury auctions start Monday due to the short month: $63B 2Y note and $70B 26W bills at 1130ET, followed by $79B 13W bills and $64B 5Y Note auctions.