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Markets Roundup: Yields Climb Ahead Friday's CPI Revisions

US TSYS
  • Tsy futures are extending session lows since gradually reversing post-30Y Bond auction support. Currently, Mar'24 10Y futures tap 110-23.5 low (-14.5; 10Y yield 4.1696% high) - nears initial technical support of 110-22+ (Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger) followed by 110-16 Low Dec 13).
  • TYH4 had bounced to 110-31.5 after the strong $25B 30Y auction (912810TX6) stopped through for the third consecutive time: 4.360% high yield vs. 4.380% WI. Decent to strong demand all week, all three coupon auctions stopping through- which hasn't occurred since January 2023.
  • Rates ticked lower following this mornings Initial jobless claims recorded a seasonally adjusted 218k (cons 220k) in the week to Feb 3 after last week’s surprise increase was revised a little higher to 227k (initial 224k).
  • Fed speak: the Federal Reserve has time to wait before cutting interest rates as the economy remains strong even as inflation falls, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Thursday. “You don’t have to be in any particular hurry. We’ve got some time to be patient,” Barkin said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
  • Otherwise, Thursday was a generally quiet session as market awaits CPI revisions from the BLS early Friday: BLS will update seasonal factors affecting CPI inflation through 2019-23 on Friday, Feb 9 “from 0830ET”.
  • This won’t impact the underlying NSA data, but will sway near-term trends and has been flagged by both Fed Governor Waller and Chair Powell referencing the upside surprise in last year’s annual revision. Analysts are mixed, seeing either very little impact or modest uplift in recent trend rates.
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