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Markets Tread Water Ahead of ECB

FOREX
  • Currency markets are more muted early Thursday, with traders sitting on the sidelines ahead of both the ECB rate decision as well as a deluge of US economic data ahead of the extended weekend.
  • Scandi currencies have been a highlight, with SEK outperforming all others in G10 after CPI for March came in well ahead of expectations, prompting a series of sell-side outfits to bring forward their expectations for Riksbank tightening. Many banks now see rate hikes as soon as June, from prior consensus forecast of September.
  • The greenback trades mixed-to-lower, while EUR, JPY make furtive gains. Recent ranges have been respected, keeping EUR/USD within range of first resistance at the Monday high of 1.0954.
  • The ECB rate decision takes focus going forward, with markets on watch for any hawkish signals from the bank after CPI data came in over three times the bank's price target. US retail sales and import price indices also cross alongside the regular weekly jobless claims data. Central bank speakers include Fed's Williams, and then Harker and Mester follow after the early US close.

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