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Free Access- The MNI Markets team expects a 25bp hike this week, along with the 26 sell-side analysts in our survey.
- Assuming a hike, the gilt maturing in March will almost certainly not be reinvested.
- Markets are fully pricing 50bp of hikes by March, but only 1/26 analysts in our survey sees that as their base case. We think markets shouldn't fully price a rate hike but that analysts are underestimating the probability. We talk through the potential rationale for a March hike.
- We would prefer to stay away from trading near-term meetings and instead think there is more scope to seeing Red SONIA futures move higher.
Full document including summaries of 26 sell-side analyst views and the questions for MNI Instant Answers:
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