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MNI BOE Preview - June 2022: 25bp but what next?

  • A 25bp hike is fully priced for this week’s MPC meeting, with markets pricing in around a 1/3 probability that the Bank of England vote for a larger 50bp hike.
  • Market pricing for August has increased even more significantly, with markets now pricing in around 81bp of hikes (i.e. fully pricing a 50bp hike in one of the next two MPC meetings). This is up around 25bp since the aftermath of the May MPC meeting with around half of that move coming since last week’s ECB meeting and higher-than-expected US CPI report.
  • We think that there is likely to be enough support for most (or “the majority”) of members to continue with the previous forward guidance for this month at least.
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